Recap 4-24-12

Main Items:

· US Capital Goods Orders, Nondef Ex Air declined to -0.8% MoM in March vs +1.0% exp. However, last month’s print was revised from 1.2% to 2.8%. DGO ex Transports declined to -1.1% vs +0.5% exp and 1.6% prev.

· No surprise out of FOMC. No mention of QE. Lacker dissented w/ 2014 language. Projections:

1. # of participants expecting the first hike in 2014 increased to 7 from 5. No one now projects the first hike in 2016, down from 2. The # expecting the first hike in 2012 and 2013 was unchanged at 3 for each year.

2. 2012 GDP: 2.65% vs 2.45%

3. 2012 UE: 7.9% vs 8.35%

4. 2012 Core PCE: 1.9% vs 1.65%

· Apple beat earnings substantially off of higher than expected iPhone sales and higher margins. (47.4% from 41.4%) However, sales of iPads and Macs disappointed. China accounted for $7.9 billion of revenue, about 20% of Apple’s total. iPhones + ecosystem are 57.9% of Apple’s sales, up from 52.7% prior Q.


  • UK GDP declined -0.2% QoQ in 1Q vs 0.1% exp and -0.3% prev

Upcoming Data:

  • Thurs: EU Confidence, German CPI, ChicagoFed, US Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Japan CPI
  • Fri: BoJ, German GfK Consumer Confidence, Spanish Retail Sales, Unemployment, Swiss KOF LEI, UMichigan Confidence
  • Sun/Mon: South Korea Mfg Survey, Japan Mfg PMI, Spanish GDP, EU CPI, Canada GDP, US Personal Income, Spending, PCE, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, South Korea CPI, Australia Mfg PMI, China Mfg PMI
  • Tues: RBA, UKMfg PMI, US ISM, China HSBC Mfg PMI,
  • Wed: Swiss Mfg PMI, Italy Mfg PMI. German Unemployment, US GDP, China Non-mfg PMI