Recap 12-7-11

Europe:

  • ECB allotted $51B in 84 day financing to 34 banks vs only $0.4bn last month
  • A senior German official disputed every point raised by the FT article on an enlarged ESM. He told Reuters he is more pessimistic than last week on an overall summit deal and the article questions whether expectations are set too high going into the meeting. The official warns that talks over the last few days shows that some actors aren’t aware of the seriousness of the eurozone situation – Reuters
  • Geithner backed having the IMF contribute “constructively” to the situation in Europe but refused to commit the US to providing more money for the fund – London Telegraph.
  • Papademos 2012 budget won approval by the Greek parliament. 5bn in spending cuts & 3.6bn in additional taxes. The chief aim is to report a primary budget surplus of 1.1% of GDP next year.
  • Italy – the country’s #2 central banker, Farbrizio Saccomanni, told CNBC that Italy’s interest rates have peaked and will head back down from current levels as the markets become more convinced of Mario Monti’s reforms.

Commentary:

Total US Consumer credit has decreased by -64bn since Sept 2009. In contrast, Federal student loans ex Sallie Mae have increased by 285bn over that period, from 125bn to 410bn now.

Student loans are very difficult to discharge. The question is, how many current students will be able to find jobs that pay salaries that allow them to discharge their debt? Currently, the unemployment rate for the 20-24yr cohort is 14.2%. How sustainable is this increase in student loans?

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