- US Core PCE rose to 1.6% YoY in July vs 1.5% exp and 1.3% prev
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity declined to -11.4 in Aug vs -9 exp and -2 prev.
- Estimates for total losses from Hurricane Irene runs in the $3-$7bn range
- BAC sold its 8.3bn investment in China’s CCB to a group of sovereign wealth funds.
- Conforming mortgage sizes are set to decline on 10/1/11 from the present $729k to $625k unless Federal action gets taken to delay the legislation.
- German CPI rose 2.4% YoY in August vs 2.5% exp and 2.6% prev
- So far, regional manufacturing indices are suggesting a 44 ISM print on Thursday, with a standard deviation of 2 pts. We will get more clarification after we get the Chicago PMI on Wednesday.
As many macro punters know, the ISM is one of the best indicators for the cyclical direction of risk assets, as the chart below shows.
Since mid 1998, a falling ISM print below 48 has preceded an average monthly S&P decline of 2.3%.