G3 Recap 3-17-11

Main Items:

  • Biggest Risk is Spent Fuel. Japan does not rebut US NRC chairman’s statements. – NYT
  • Qaddafi Forces have surrounded the last major rebel foothold in Libya. – NYT
  • Initial Jobless Claims declined to 385k vs 388k expected and 397k previously
  • US Philly Fed jumped to 43.4 in Feb vs 28.8 expected and 35.9 previously. This was the highest print since 1984.
  • Core CPI rose 1.1% YoY last month vs 1.0% expected and previously. The Headline measure rose to 2.1% YoY vs 2.0% expected and 1.6% previously.
  • FedEx third quarter earnings were 81c per share versus 82c expectations. Revenue of $9.66bn was slightly above $9.6bn expected. They see the year at $4.83-$5.00 per share versus $4.86 street expectations.
  • Sales of residential housing in Beijing and Shanghai dropped sharply in the past 2 months – Caixin

Overseas Data:

  • USDJPY collapsed below postwar low in NY last night to 76.25; one of the top 5 largest moves ever. 1 mth JPY vols spike to 20. Nikkei reports that g7 finance chiefs will support Japanese FX interventions.
  • SNB kept rates unchanged as expected
  • BoE inflation survey results rose further. 1y inflation expectations are now 4.0%

Commentary:

  • History lesson: after the Chernobyl disaster, the Dax fell -21% in 3 months:

    This is probably the worst case scenario, with a very high probability that it will be not be as bad.

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