G3 Recap 2-11-11

Main Items:

  • U Michigan Confidence improved to 75.1 in Jan vs 75 expected and 74.2 previously. The expectations component, however, dropped to 67.6 from 69.3. The rise in overall consumer sentiment was completely driven by an increase in confidence for families with incomes over $75k (88.2 from 80.7), while sentiment for families with incomes under $75k fell to 67.7 from 72.1.
  • Egyptians are calling for even larger demonstrations and 20 million people are expected to turnout to protest.
  • Arnold coming back – Arnold Schwarzenegger has announced that he is planning to reprise his career as a Hollywood action hero – London Telegraph

Overseas Data:

  • UK PPI Output Core rose 3.2% YoY in Jan vs 3.0% expected and 2.9% previously. The headline input measure jumped 1.7% MoM, taking the YoY measure to 13.4%.
  • Bank of Korea left rates unchanged vs expectations of a 25bps hike, even after inflation breached the central bank’s 4% ceiling.
  • RBA’s Stevens: “while the impact of the floods on the short-term path of output and prices would be quite substantial, monetary policy should not respond to those effects.”


  • Nothing original today. Note that a couple of brokers have released reports today noting the cheapness of the US and EU front end. Barclay’s Taylor rule, based on Core CPI, UE, UE YoY, and a trajectory variable suggests that FF is still deep in negative territory: